#208 Bonfire (9-17)

avg: 534.69  •  sd: 56.49  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
149 Crucible Loss 5-11 279.71 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
217 Mastodon Win 11-9 732.25 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 5-11 295.66 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
- Sabers Win 11-3 662.84 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
77 Tequila Mockingbird Loss 7-11 786 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
137 ELevate Loss 8-15 377.06 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
171 North Coast Loss 11-12 625.72 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
198 Second Wind Win 13-12 706.25 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
203 Zen Win 15-14 675.69 Aug 11th Michigan Mix Up 2018
222 I-79 Win 15-12 684.83 Aug 11th Michigan Mix Up 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 4-15 295.66 Aug 11th Michigan Mix Up 2018
125 Hybrid Loss 10-15 554.01 Aug 12th Michigan Mix Up 2018
212 Mixed Results Win 10-2 1114.05 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2018
103 Trash Pandas Loss 3-5 686.66 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2018
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Loss 4-9 -5.54 Aug 26th Indy Invite Club 2018
125 Hybrid Loss 5-8 554.01 Aug 26th Indy Invite Club 2018
134 Petey's Pirates Win 8-7 1082.75 Aug 26th Indy Invite Club 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails** Loss 4-11 900.3 Ignored Aug 26th Indy Invite Club 2018
125 Hybrid Loss 6-11 460.91 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
86 Commitment Issues** Loss 3-13 590.13 Ignored Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
205 Fifth Element Win 10-7 933.65 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
171 North Coast Loss 9-10 625.72 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Loss 5-9 65.4 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 8-13 399.5 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
223 Petey's Scallywags Win 11-10 485.69 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
198 Second Wind Loss 5-13 -18.75 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)