#207 Face Off (11-15)

avg: 605.01  •  sd: 54.48  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
109 Birds Loss 7-15 478.47 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
263 Albany Airbenders Win 11-7 742.62 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
226 Enough Monkeys Win 13-11 710.28 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
169 WHUF* Loss 5-15 172.77 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
133 Night Shift Loss 10-11 836.88 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
226 Enough Monkeys Loss 9-10 356.44 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
201 Nautilus Loss 9-10 507.77 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
51 Darkwing** Loss 1-13 810.14 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
263 Albany Airbenders Loss 10-11 150.73 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
257 Equinox Win 12-10 551.36 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
- Cool Whip Win 1-0 605.01 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
289 Rising Tide U20X Win 13-6 514.55 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
203 Rainbow Loss 8-11 264.32 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
105 Happy Valley Loss 6-13 499.6 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
51 Darkwing** Loss 5-13 810.14 Ignored Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
92 The Bandits Loss 8-13 638.19 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
150 Scarecrow Win 12-11 987.02 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
198 x-C Win 12-8 1081.07 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
210 Sorted Beans Win 13-10 925.67 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
93 Sunken Circus Loss 7-13 575.86 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
275 Dead Reckoning Win 15-9 714.39 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
205 DTH Loss 10-15 163.86 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
49 League of Shadows** Loss 4-15 837.71 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
150 Scarecrow Win 11-10 987.02 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
197 HAOS Win 12-10 883.37 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
150 Scarecrow Loss 7-15 262.02 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)