#45 Outbreak (17-12)

avg: 903.78  •  sd: 84.75  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- Orbit** Win 13-0 -202.85 Ignored Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
59 Queen Cake Win 13-4 1214.29 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
40 Steel Loss 10-11 916 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
37 Fiasco Loss 6-13 496.58 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
- Orbit** Win 13-0 -202.85 Ignored Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
59 Queen Cake Win 13-7 1171.82 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
29 Virginia Rebellion Loss 6-12 777.14 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
73 Honey Pot** Win 12-5 849.43 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Loss 4-12 781.55 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
59 Queen Cake Loss 8-9 489.29 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
62 Inferno Win 13-5 1173.17 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
63 Taco Truck Win 11-9 816.04 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
29 Virginia Rebellion Loss 6-13 756.45 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
56 Brooklyn Book Club Win 13-7 1251.14 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
35 Hot Metal Loss 9-10 1012.96 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
61 Notorious C.L.E. Win 13-9 1015.02 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
43 Green Means Go Loss 8-10 733.93 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
53 Backhanded Win 13-12 855.82 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
42 Pine Baroness Loss 6-13 422.63 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
- Encore** Win 15-1 397.15 Ignored Sep 8th East Coast Womens Sectional Championship 2018
73 Honey Pot Win 12-6 828.74 Sep 8th East Coast Womens Sectional Championship 2018
- Orbit** Win 15-0 -202.85 Ignored Sep 8th East Coast Womens Sectional Championship 2018
73 Honey Pot Win 11-5 849.43 Sep 22nd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
59 Queen Cake Win 8-6 914.78 Sep 22nd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
7 Ozone** Loss 4-13 1336.53 Ignored Sep 22nd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Loss 6-13 781.55 Sep 22nd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
37 Fiasco Win 10-8 1359.25 Sep 23rd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
63 Taco Truck Win 15-7 1166.83 Sep 23rd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Loss 8-15 816.74 Sep 23rd Southeast Womens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)