#16 Heist (22-15)

avg: 1722.08  •  sd: 90.07  •  top 16/20: 65.4%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
5 Scandal Loss 12-13 1978.1 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
8 Nightlock Win 10-8 2183.06 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
22 BENT Loss 10-11 1454.71 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
20 Underground Win 13-9 2062.11 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
18 Phoenix Loss 9-10 1572.67 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
8 Nightlock Loss 6-13 1320.39 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
11 Rival Win 11-10 1929.18 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
74 MystiKuE** Win 13-1 831.1 Ignored Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
58 Stellar** Win 13-2 1263.29 Ignored Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
66 Iowa Wild Rose** Win 13-4 1077.26 Ignored Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
57 Helix** Win 13-1 1272.41 Ignored Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
37 Fiasco** Win 12-5 1696.58 Ignored Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
73 Honey Pot** Win 13-0 849.43 Ignored Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
34 Dish Win 13-6 1760.8 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
22 BENT Win 13-11 1808.55 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
31 Indy Rogue Win 13-7 1761.52 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
14 Showdown Win 13-9 2149.7 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
10 Nemesis Loss 8-13 1328.32 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
11 Rival Loss 6-13 1204.18 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
32 FAB Win 15-4 1790.7 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
17 Grit Win 13-12 1847.02 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
1 Brute Squad** Loss 5-15 1862.67 Ignored Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
6 6ixers Loss 12-15 1715.86 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
7 Ozone Loss 10-15 1482.93 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
22 BENT Win 15-8 2144.52 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
44 Crackle** Win 15-4 1566.74 Ignored Sep 22nd North Central Womens Regional Championship 2018
66 Iowa Wild Rose** Win 15-2 1077.26 Ignored Sep 22nd North Central Womens Regional Championship 2018
50 Cold Cuts** Win 15-0 1418.27 Ignored Sep 22nd North Central Womens Regional Championship 2018
24 Wicked Win 15-6 2092.17 Sep 23rd North Central Womens Regional Championship 2018
19 Pop Win 13-12 1804.32 Sep 23rd North Central Womens Regional Championship 2018
1 Brute Squad** Loss 2-15 1862.67 Ignored Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
8 Nightlock Win 13-11 2149.23 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
9 Schwa Loss 12-15 1537.47 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
5 Scandal Loss 13-14 1978.1 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
10 Nemesis Loss 8-14 1288.45 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
18 Phoenix Loss 9-11 1448.47 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
12 Traffic Loss 10-15 1315.47 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)