#35 Hot Metal (19-14)

avg: 1137.96  •  sd: 53.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- Venus Win 14-12 1212.39 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
43 Green Means Go Loss 7-11 529.7 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
- Salty Loss 10-12 868.4 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
22 BENT Loss 6-15 979.71 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
- Venus Win 11-8 1357.05 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
53 Backhanded Win 15-10 1184.42 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
- Vintage Loss 10-14 1026.07 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
29 Virginia Rebellion Loss 9-11 1107.24 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
45 Outbreak Win 10-9 1028.78 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
56 Brooklyn Book Club Win 13-5 1293.61 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
61 Notorious C.L.E. Win 13-5 1196.45 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
42 Pine Baroness Win 13-12 1147.63 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Loss 6-11 834.85 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
7 Ozone** Loss 3-15 1336.53 Ignored Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
5 Scandal** Loss 5-15 1503.1 Ignored Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
21 Siege Loss 10-15 1146.03 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
22 BENT Loss 5-15 979.71 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
32 FAB Win 15-14 1315.7 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
17 Grit Loss 9-15 1206.54 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
43 Green Means Go Win 9-8 1121.6 Sep 8th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
42 Pine Baroness Win 10-9 1147.63 Sep 8th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
67 Broad City** Win 12-4 1036.92 Ignored Sep 8th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
- Philadelphia Forge** Win 13-1 600 Ignored Sep 8th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
60 Eliza Furnace Win 8-5 1060.17 Sep 9th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
60 Eliza Furnace Win 10-5 1180.47 Sep 9th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
42 Pine Baroness Win 10-7 1412.3 Sep 9th Founders Womens Sectional Championship 2018
17 Grit Loss 7-13 1164.49 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
42 Pine Baroness Win 12-10 1260.75 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
64 Suffrage** Win 13-4 1107.05 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
67 Broad City** Win 13-5 1036.92 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
29 Virginia Rebellion Loss 11-13 1127.61 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
43 Green Means Go Win 10-8 1259.26 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
5 Scandal** Loss 3-15 1503.1 Ignored Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)