#29 Virginia Rebellion (23-6)

avg: 1356.45  •  sd: 58.62  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- Ripe Loss 8-13 1094.75 Jun 16th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
63 Taco Truck** Win 13-3 1166.83 Ignored Jun 16th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
18 Phoenix Loss 7-13 1140.14 Jun 17th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
- Warhawks** Win 13-1 1194.4 Ignored Jun 17th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
- Ripe Loss 7-13 1033.38 Jun 17th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
63 Taco Truck Win 11-8 932.44 Jun 17th Cackalacky Challenge 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Win 13-11 1610.39 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
45 Outbreak Win 12-6 1483.09 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
73 Honey Pot** Win 13-4 849.43 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
62 Inferno** Win 13-2 1173.17 Ignored Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
59 Queen Cake Win 12-7 1134.8 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Win 11-10 1506.55 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
61 Notorious C.L.E.** Win 13-4 1196.45 Ignored Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
35 Hot Metal Win 11-9 1387.16 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
56 Brooklyn Book Club** Win 13-5 1293.61 Ignored Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
45 Outbreak Win 13-6 1503.78 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
53 Backhanded Win 13-7 1288.35 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
43 Green Means Go Win 13-7 1554.13 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
27 Tabby Rosa Win 13-9 1800.11 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
64 Suffrage** Win 15-3 1107.05 Ignored Sep 8th Capital Womens Sectional Championship 2018
53 Backhanded Win 14-7 1313.7 Sep 8th Capital Womens Sectional Championship 2018
17 Grit Loss 11-15 1340.86 Sep 8th Capital Womens Sectional Championship 2018
5 Scandal** Loss 3-13 1503.1 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
60 Eliza Furnace Win 13-7 1164.1 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
53 Backhanded Win 12-6 1310.13 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
43 Green Means Go Win 13-6 1596.6 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
42 Pine Baroness Win 15-10 1476.23 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
17 Grit Loss 6-15 1122.02 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
35 Hot Metal Win 13-11 1366.8 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Womens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)