#63 Hot Metal (9-25)

avg: 713.19  •  sd: 56.59  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- PPF Win 12-6 855.51 Jun 1st New York Warmup Womens Sanctioned Games 2019
51 TOX6ix Loss 8-11 606.52 Jun 2nd New York Warmup Womens Sanctioned Games 2019
100 DINO** Win 15-0 414.72 Ignored Jun 2nd New York Warmup Womens Sanctioned Games 2019
18 Iris** Loss 5-14 1076.17 Ignored Jun 2nd New York Warmup Womens Sanctioned Games 2019
53 Venus Loss 8-12 484.58 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
45 Vice Loss 5-13 473.1 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
21 BENT** Loss 6-15 985.97 Ignored Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
18 Iris** Loss 2-13 1076.17 Ignored Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
79 Versa Win 13-6 939.97 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
43 Tempest Loss 8-14 548.14 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
48 Brooklyn Book Club Loss 8-13 537.68 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
73 Ignite Loss 7-10 183.66 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
54 Dish Win 13-8 1397.49 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
37 Stella Loss 5-13 604.36 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
16 Pop** Loss 5-13 1080.7 Ignored Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
28 Colorado Small Batch** Loss 5-12 795.57 Ignored Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
32 FAB Loss 9-10 1166.9 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
41 Indy Rogue Loss 7-13 571.5 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
45 Vice Loss 6-13 473.1 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
39 Pine Baroness Loss 10-12 943.09 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
70 Broad City Loss 6-10 146.13 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
29 Virginia Rebellion Loss 11-15 1004.91 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
62 Agency Loss 11-13 561.94 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
70 Broad City Win 9-8 767.29 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
68 Eliza Furnace Loss 10-11 536.79 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
70 Broad City Win 12-10 880.42 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
39 Pine Baroness Loss 7-15 581.22 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
20 Grit** Loss 3-13 1008.05 Ignored Sep 21st Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
62 Agency Loss 10-13 462.63 Sep 21st Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
98 Pickup Lines Win 13-6 460.53 Sep 21st Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
39 Pine Baroness Loss 10-12 943.09 Sep 21st Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
68 Eliza Furnace Win 13-10 989.93 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
6 Scandal** Loss 5-15 1576.6 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
70 Broad City Win 10-7 1031.96 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Womens Club Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)