#65 Eliza Furnace (14-10)

avg: 725.78  •  sd: 40.15  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
84 Autonomous Win 12-9 640.79 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
46 Indy Rogue Loss 8-12 659.01 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
64 Notorious C.L.E. Win 10-8 998.21 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
85 Lady Forward Win 12-8 698.35 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
97 Belle Win 12-6 405.94 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
90 Sureshot Win 15-4 781.56 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
48 Brooklyn Book Club Loss 6-11 535.49 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
50 Taco Truck Loss 7-10 664.33 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
29 Warhawks Loss 5-10 826.26 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
77 DC Rogue Win 11-6 981.5 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
93 Suffrage Win 11-6 695.71 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
26 Virginia Rebellion** Loss 3-15 847.7 Ignored Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
58 Agency Loss 8-9 736.73 Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
69 Broad City Win 10-7 1050.35 Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
41 Vice Loss 6-13 575.88 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
81 Rush Hour Win 13-3 922.21 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
73 Ignite Loss 8-12 175.57 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
92 HOPE Win 13-4 771.34 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
48 Brooklyn Book Club Loss 6-12 502.87 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
92 HOPE Win 10-5 745.24 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
81 Rush Hour Win 13-4 922.21 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
69 Broad City Win 12-10 898.81 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
40 Pine Baroness Loss 9-15 693.56 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
66 Hot Metal Win 11-10 844.64 Sep 7th Founders Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)