#11 Wildfire (19-10)

avg: 1867  •  sd: 86.14  •  top 16/20: 91.7%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
20 Grit Loss 11-12 1483.05 Jul 13th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
7 Phoenix Loss 8-13 1555.7 Jul 13th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
6 Scandal Loss 9-13 1758.03 Jul 13th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
27 Wicked Win 11-7 1868.21 Jul 14th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
31 Heist Win 10-9 1432.56 Jul 14th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
15 Ozone Loss 12-13 1601.66 Jul 14th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2019
15 Ozone Win 14-13 1851.66 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
17 Showdown Win 14-11 1993.54 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
54 Dish** Win 15-4 1501.33 Ignored Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
19 Underground Win 8-7 1786.27 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
7 Phoenix Win 10-7 2441.52 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
12 Siege Loss 10-11 1725.11 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
58 Venom** Win 15-4 1424.13 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
76 Viva** Win 15-4 1139.64 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
42 Rampage** Win 15-6 1725.62 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
93 Ultraviolet** Win 13-1 758.84 Ignored Sep 21st Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
58 Venom** Win 13-1 1424.13 Ignored Sep 21st Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
76 Viva** Win 13-2 1139.64 Ignored Sep 21st Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
1 Fury Loss 7-13 1883.93 Sep 21st Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
10 Nightlock Loss 8-13 1461.48 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
32 FAB Win 13-11 1520.74 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
22 LOL Win 13-10 1857.3 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Womens Regional Championship 2019
7 Phoenix Win 14-9 2525.72 Oct 24th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
4 Molly Brown Loss 9-15 1765.07 Oct 24th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
12 Siege Win 15-13 2064.29 Oct 24th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
10 Nightlock Loss 11-12 1832.64 Oct 25th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
12 Siege Loss 11-12 1725.11 Oct 25th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
16 Pop Win 12-7 2201.21 Oct 25th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
18 Iris Win 14-12 1897.12 Oct 26th USA Ultimate National Championships 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)