#8 Nightlock (24-14)

avg: 1920.39  •  sd: 44.97  •  top 16/20: 100%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
20 Underground Win 9-8 1768.54 Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 40
33 Rampage** Win 13-3 1763.46 Ignored Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 40
30 Sneaky House Hippos Win 13-2 1930.71 Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 40
23 LOL Win 13-8 2006.38 Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 40
- Fusion Win 12-7 2074.03 Jun 24th Eugene Summer Solstice 40
9 Schwa Win 10-7 2227.63 Jun 24th Eugene Summer Solstice 40
4 Seattle Riot Loss 5-13 1663.78 Jun 24th Eugene Summer Solstice 40
16 Heist Loss 8-10 1459.41 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
5 Scandal Loss 11-13 1874.26 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
22 BENT Win 11-9 1828.91 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
12 Traffic Win 12-8 2210.22 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
16 Heist Win 13-6 2322.08 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
4 Seattle Riot Loss 7-13 1706.24 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
10 Nemesis Win 13-11 2053.32 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
2 Fury Loss 6-15 1760.71 Aug 3rd 2018 US Open Club Championships
21 Siege Win 15-5 2199.64 Aug 3rd 2018 US Open Club Championships
7 Ozone Win 14-13 2061.53 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
14 Showdown Loss 11-14 1417.8 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
3 Molly Brown Loss 4-15 1673.57 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
14 Showdown Win 15-11 2112.3 Aug 5th 2018 US Open Club Championships
9 Schwa Win 13-11 2066.81 Aug 25th Bay Area Invite 2018
4 Seattle Riot Loss 14-15 2138.78 Aug 25th Bay Area Invite 2018
3 Molly Brown Loss 8-15 1708.76 Aug 25th Bay Area Invite 2018
12 Traffic Loss 13-15 1554.89 Aug 26th Bay Area Invite 2018
20 Underground Win 15-11 2024.7 Aug 26th Bay Area Invite 2018
23 LOL Win 12-9 1855.58 Aug 26th Bay Area Invite 2018
33 Rampage Win 15-8 1728.27 Sep 22nd Southwest Womens Regional Championship 2018
52 Deadly Viper Assassination Squad** Win 15-4 1393.57 Ignored Sep 22nd Southwest Womens Regional Championship 2018
23 LOL Win 15-7 2110.22 Sep 22nd Southwest Womens Regional Championship 2018
15 Wildfire Win 15-13 1937.53 Sep 23rd Southwest Womens Regional Championship 2018
2 Fury Loss 7-15 1760.71 Sep 23rd Southwest Womens Regional Championship 2018
16 Heist Loss 11-13 1493.24 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
9 Schwa Loss 11-12 1712.97 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
1 Brute Squad Loss 4-15 1862.67 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
12 Traffic Win 15-10 2222.67 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
19 Pop Win 15-4 2279.32 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
19 Pop Win 15-12 1979.81 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
15 Wildfire Win 13-8 2219.51 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)