#99 Pickup Lines (3-15)

avg: -242.54  •  sd: 152.97  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
26 Virginia Rebellion** Loss 1-13 847.7 Ignored Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
58 Agency** Loss 2-13 261.73 Ignored Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
69 Broad City** Loss 1-11 60.68 Ignored Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
100 Oligarchy Win 10-9 -156.76 Jul 13th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
58 Agency** Loss 4-15 261.73 Ignored Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
69 Broad City** Loss 2-15 60.68 Ignored Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
29 Warhawks** Loss 6-15 800.16 Ignored Jul 14th Scuffletown Throwdown 2019
73 Ignite** Loss 1-13 16.72 Ignored Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
93 Suffrage Loss 2-13 -450.99 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
95 Roc Paper Scissors Loss 4-13 -647.02 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
43 Rebel Rebel** Loss 3-13 550.87 Ignored Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
98 DINO Win 11-9 74.66 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
98 DINO Loss 5-13 -774.55 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
26 Virginia Rebellion** Loss 1-11 847.7 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
58 Agency** Loss 3-11 261.73 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
21 Grit** Loss 0-11 1013.28 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
100 Oligarchy Win 10-5 292.14 Sep 7th Capital Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
93 Suffrage Loss 7-9 -130.33 Sep 7th Capital Womens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)