#34 Michigan (5-10)

avg: 1788.82  •  sd: 73.92  •  top 16/20: 2.7%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
72 Auburn Win 13-7 2055.33 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
67 Virginia Tech Win 13-9 1971.86 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
201 South Florida** Win 13-2 1537.69 Ignored Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
14 Carleton College Loss 13-15 1835.69 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
3 Massachusetts Loss 10-13 1983.27 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
4 Texas Win 11-9 2463.96 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
26 Georgia Tech Loss 10-13 1540.19 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
23 Wisconsin Loss 10-13 1566.37 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
11 Brown Loss 10-13 1746.58 Apr 1st Easterns 2023
14 Carleton College Loss 8-12 1608.72 Apr 1st Easterns 2023
27 South Carolina Loss 10-13 1520.03 Apr 1st Easterns 2023
9 Oregon Loss 11-12 2012.14 Apr 1st Easterns 2023
72 Auburn Win 15-4 2097.8 Apr 2nd Easterns 2023
30 Ohio State Loss 9-11 1586.76 Apr 2nd Easterns 2023
19 Georgia Loss 8-15 1386.04 Apr 2nd Easterns 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)