#291 Pacific Lutheran (5-12)

avg: 703.37  •  sd: 51.44  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
399 Seattle Win 13-3 828.07 Mar 2nd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
326 Western Washington University-B Win 12-8 1022.88 Mar 2nd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
99 Lewis & Clark Loss 8-12 917.62 Mar 2nd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
168 Whitworth Loss 7-12 566.72 Mar 2nd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
99 Lewis & Clark** Loss 6-15 758.77 Ignored Mar 3rd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
162 Washington State Loss 7-14 526.6 Mar 3rd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
383 Washington-C Win 15-3 903.69 Mar 3rd 19th Annual PLU BBQ Open
71 Michigan Tech** Loss 4-12 890.99 Ignored Mar 9th D III Midwestern Invite 2019
186 Macalester Loss 8-11 666.01 Mar 9th D III Midwestern Invite 2019
332 Milwaukee School of Engineering Loss 11-12 434.2 Mar 9th D III Midwestern Invite 2019
84 Brandeis** Loss 3-9 831.89 Ignored Mar 10th D III Midwestern Invite 2019
192 Gonzaga Loss 4-13 422.54 Mar 30th 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
99 Lewis & Clark** Loss 5-13 758.77 Ignored Mar 30th 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
326 Western Washington University-B Win 13-11 810.57 Mar 30th 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
121 Puget Sound Loss 8-13 784.86 Mar 30th 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
241 Washington-B Loss 1-13 288.48 Mar 31st 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
326 Western Washington University-B Win 15-10 1035.33 Mar 31st 2019 NW Challenge Tier 2 3
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)