#265 Fresno State (2-4)

avg: 666.86  •  sd: 65.89  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
178 San Diego State Loss 8-13 543.66 Mar 11th Silicon Valley Rally
197 San Jose State Loss 8-10 688.36 Mar 11th Silicon Valley Rally
291 California-Santa Cruz-B Win 11-9 772.24 Mar 11th Silicon Valley Rally
232 Chico State Loss 8-11 416.72 Mar 12th Silicon Valley Rally
105 California-Davis** Loss 4-13 744.86 Ignored Mar 12th Silicon Valley Rally
320 Stanford-B Win 13-6 913.63 Mar 12th Silicon Valley Rally
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)