#162 American (8-10)

avg: 1104.41  •  sd: 67.38  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
168 Johns Hopkins Win 8-7 1211.58 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warmup
41 William & Mary Loss 8-11 1353.27 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warmup
167 Virginia Commonwealth Loss 3-11 490.1 Jan 28th Mid Atlantic Warmup
163 Boston University Loss 9-10 976.13 Jan 29th Mid Atlantic Warmup
248 Drexel Win 13-7 1302.08 Jan 29th Mid Atlantic Warmup
345 Salisbury** Win 13-3 713.45 Ignored Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
185 West Chester Win 8-7 1129.65 Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
124 Towson Loss 6-8 968.64 Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
150 George Washington Loss 12-13 1023.25 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
175 Rowan Loss 10-11 923.16 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
168 Johns Hopkins Loss 9-13 668.01 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
33 Duke** Loss 4-13 1190.66 Ignored Apr 1st Atlantic Coast Open 2023
190 MIT Win 12-9 1336.93 Apr 1st Atlantic Coast Open 2023
67 Virginia Tech Loss 4-13 953.29 Apr 1st Atlantic Coast Open 2023
77 Temple Loss 3-12 880.32 Apr 1st Atlantic Coast Open 2023
172 East Carolina Win 13-12 1188.43 Apr 2nd Atlantic Coast Open 2023
147 Connecticut Win 13-11 1391.32 Apr 2nd Atlantic Coast Open 2023
168 Johns Hopkins Win 9-3 1686.58 Apr 2nd Atlantic Coast Open 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)