#168 South Florida (2-12)

avg: 1063.99  •  sd: 64.98  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
30 Auburn Loss 7-13 1151.73 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
52 Harvard Loss 10-11 1411.01 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
111 Arizona State Loss 4-13 689.21 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
93 Cincinnati Loss 11-13 1134.58 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
4 Minnesota** Loss 5-13 1469.92 Ignored Feb 17th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
18 Brigham Young Loss 7-13 1295.85 Feb 17th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
36 Michigan Loss 11-15 1257.14 Feb 17th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
160 Oklahoma Win 15-13 1306.78 Feb 18th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
124 Indiana Loss 11-12 1101.26 Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
16 North Carolina-Wilmington** Loss 5-13 1284.51 Ignored Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
88 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 1-13 788.31 Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
37 Central Florida Loss 7-15 1034.75 Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
224 Georgia Southern Win 12-11 986.24 Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
98 Clemson Loss 6-15 738.04 Mar 11th Tally Classic XIII
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)