#241 Humboldt State (2-9)

avg: 441.55  •  sd: 107.11  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
82 Lewis & Clark** Loss 4-15 667.16 Ignored Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
31 Oregon State** Loss 2-15 968.16 Ignored Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
153 Portland State Loss 9-15 438.83 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
138 Washington State Loss 11-15 611.47 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
240 Oregon State-B Loss 4-9 -155.75 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
192 Loyola Marymount Loss 6-10 203.52 Feb 4th Stanford Open
185 Nevada-Reno Loss 6-12 173.82 Feb 4th Stanford Open
246 California-B Win 10-3 1016.87 Feb 4th Stanford Open
165 Claremont Loss 5-11 279.41 Feb 5th Stanford Open
122 Washington-B** Loss 5-13 459.23 Ignored Feb 5th Stanford Open
266 Portland Win 12-2 875.45 Feb 5th Stanford Open
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)