#89 Tufts-B (8-5)

avg: 1229.54  •  sd: 75.47  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
45 Massachusetts-B Loss 7-8 1315.23 Feb 11th UMass Invite 2023
114 Massachusetts-Lowell Loss 7-9 819.17 Feb 11th UMass Invite 2023
237 Hofstra** Win 11-3 1057.35 Ignored Feb 11th UMass Invite 2023
126 Northeastern-B Win 7-6 1175.07 Feb 11th UMass Invite 2023
114 Massachusetts-Lowell Win 7-6 1223.51 Feb 12th UMass Invite 2023
29 Connecticut College Loss 8-13 1088.99 Feb 12th UMass Invite 2023
316 Harvard-B** Win 15-4 600 Ignored Feb 12th UMass Invite 2023
126 Northeastern-B Win 12-9 1395.44 Feb 12th UMass Invite 2023
159 Brown-B Win 13-5 1525.7 Mar 4th No Sleep Till Brooklyn 2023
80 MIT Loss 9-10 1153.13 Mar 4th No Sleep Till Brooklyn 2023
73 Williams Win 11-10 1441.82 Mar 4th No Sleep Till Brooklyn 2023
99 SUNY-Stony Brook Win 11-9 1432.59 Mar 5th No Sleep Till Brooklyn 2023
108 Syracuse Loss 9-11 867.91 Mar 5th No Sleep Till Brooklyn 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)