#166 California-San Diego-B (9-4)

avg: 1093.76  •  sd: 77.81  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 California-Irvine Loss 8-11 929.91 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
10 California-Santa Cruz** Loss 0-13 1489.74 Ignored Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
243 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 11-4 1352.23 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
291 California-Santa Cruz-B Win 13-4 1123.06 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
275 UCLA-B Win 14-8 1144.51 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
105 California-Davis Loss 5-13 744.88 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
243 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 12-3 1352.23 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
230 Cal State-Long Beach Win 11-10 916.9 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
288 California-Davis-B Win 15-10 992.48 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Win 13-7 1597.38 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
243 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 9-5 1281.29 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Win 11-10 1164.84 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
138 Occidental Loss 6-15 598.28 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)