#246 Winona State (8-9)

avg: 779.81  •  sd: 67.32  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
334 Illinois State-B Win 13-1 1030.32 Mar 10th Last Call 9
422 Illinois-C** Win 13-4 402.48 Ignored Mar 10th Last Call 9
337 DePaul Win 13-6 1012.99 Mar 10th Last Call 9
398 Rose-Hulman** Win 13-5 689.95 Ignored Mar 10th Last Call 9
162 Saint Louis Loss 4-12 479.75 Mar 11th Last Call 9
162 Saint Louis Loss 6-13 479.75 Mar 11th Last Call 9
283 Wisconsin-Stevens Point Win 12-8 1088.31 Mar 11th Last Call 9
296 Eastern Illinois Loss 8-9 469.16 Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
171 Truman State Loss 9-11 789.39 Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
262 Valparaiso Win 9-8 869.09 Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
257 Knox Win 9-8 880.63 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
197 Loyola-Chicago Loss 6-11 406.86 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
253 Ferris State University Loss 8-11 396.22 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
123 Nebraska Win 11-10 1375.43 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
190 Northern Iowa Loss 9-10 850.78 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
201 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 11-12 807.63 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
118 Wisconsin-Whitewater Loss 7-13 707.29 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)