#243 California-Santa Barbara-B (4-7)

avg: 752.23  •  sd: 110.79  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
166 California-San Diego-B Loss 4-11 493.76 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
10 California-Santa Cruz** Loss 1-13 1489.74 Ignored Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
291 California-Santa Cruz-B Win 11-4 1123.06 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
149 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 5-9 626.03 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
166 California-San Diego-B Loss 3-12 493.76 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
230 Cal State-Long Beach Win 10-6 1288.06 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
288 California-Davis-B Loss 8-10 276.21 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
166 California-San Diego-B Loss 5-9 564.7 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Loss 8-11 674.24 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
288 California-Davis-B Win 10-7 928.54 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
262 Southern California-B Win 13-10 1013.16 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)