#149 Davidson (7-11)

avg: 1140.86  •  sd: 75.72  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
303 Charleston Win 11-3 1171.48 Jan 27th Joint Summit XXXIII College Open
122 Tennessee Loss 9-10 1130.55 Jan 27th Joint Summit XXXIII College Open
116 Appalachian State Win 11-9 1523.67 Jan 27th Joint Summit XXXIII College Open
185 Georgia-B Win 11-8 1349.56 Jan 27th Joint Summit XXXIII College Open
61 James Madison Loss 6-9 1053.95 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
48 Dartmouth Loss 6-11 1018.73 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
98 Clemson Loss 7-12 817.53 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
151 George Mason Loss 8-10 854.17 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
66 Kennesaw State Win 12-11 1583.01 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
113 Lehigh Loss 9-14 810.21 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
62 Vermont Win 13-11 1694.67 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
133 Case Western Reserve Loss 10-13 847.62 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
61 James Madison Loss 7-13 914.99 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
60 Cornell Loss 8-13 977.07 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
109 Williams Loss 9-13 877.64 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
119 Bates Loss 10-15 811.03 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
179 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-6 1618.07 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
167 North Carolina-B Win 9-3 1666.25 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)