#133 Utah State (11-6)

avg: 1245.27  •  sd: 79.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
180 Humboldt State Loss 5-13 458.43 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
168 Whitworth Win 9-8 1212.23 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
34 UCLA Loss 8-11 1363.12 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
200 Montana Win 13-11 1213.08 Mar 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
305 Boise State Win 13-9 1060.9 Mar 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
76 Utah Loss 9-10 1348.73 Mar 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
200 Montana Win 13-9 1402.8 Mar 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
238 Denver Loss 11-12 772.8 Mar 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
202 Northern Arizona Win 13-11 1201.91 Mar 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
191 Montana State Win 10-8 1287.62 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
123 New Mexico Win 13-11 1508.25 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
170 Colorado-Denver Win 13-9 1502.48 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
216 Occidental Loss 9-11 678.14 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
116 Nevada-Reno Win 7-5 1621.86 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
123 New Mexico Win 13-9 1697.98 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
125 Colorado School of Mines Win 13-11 1507.16 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
34 UCLA Loss 6-13 1128.73 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)