#342 Washington University-B (5-11)

avg: 396.36  •  sd: 53.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
274 Arkansas State Loss 2-10 101.31 Feb 24th Dust Bowl 2018
414 Hendrix Win 8-3 467.59 Feb 24th Dust Bowl 2018
305 Oklahoma-B Loss 9-13 142.65 Feb 24th Dust Bowl 2018
156 Colorado-Denver** Loss 3-11 506.91 Ignored Feb 24th Dust Bowl 2018
274 Arkansas State Loss 12-13 576.31 Feb 25th Dust Bowl 2018
391 Kansas B-B Win 15-4 747.05 Feb 25th Dust Bowl 2018
233 Missouri Loss 4-15 212.4 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
190 Northern Iowa Loss 8-14 439.75 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
420 Wisconsin-C Win 15-3 427.08 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
384 Grinnell Win 15-8 772.57 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
259 Northern Illinois Loss 5-15 152.4 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
188 Wisconsin-B Loss 5-15 380.67 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
294 Illinois-B Loss 13-14 472.03 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
- Purdue-B Loss 10-11 212.8 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
378 Michigan State-B Loss 9-10 129.04 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
300 Southern Indiana Win 13-12 710.41 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)