#85 Colorado College (10-4)

avg: 1399.36  •  sd: 80.87  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
165 Humboldt State Win 9-4 1666.68 Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
158 Lewis & Clark Win 9-5 1631.19 Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
329 California-Irvine** Win 13-4 1064.87 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
32 California Loss 3-13 1095.8 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
79 California-Davis Win 12-11 1539.63 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
69 Carleton College-GoP Loss 9-10 1324.46 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
57 Whitman Win 11-8 1872.17 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
35 Air Force Loss 2-13 1039.57 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
341 Air Force Academy-B** Win 13-1 1006.53 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
159 Colorado-B Win 9-6 1513.13 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
128 Colorado School of Mines Win 11-5 1803.86 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
35 Air Force Loss 8-12 1198.42 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
355 Colorado Mesa University Win 11-5 954.28 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
128 Colorado School of Mines Win 6-5 1328.86 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)