#19 Oregon State (13-8)

avg: 1828.12  •  sd: 57.99  •  top 16/20: 50.2%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
192 Montana** Win 15-1 1466.2 Ignored Jan 25th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
75 Nevada-Reno Win 15-11 1741.85 Jan 25th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
168 Lewis & Clark** Win 15-4 1565.3 Ignored Jan 25th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
142 Washington-B Win 15-8 1603.25 Jan 25th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
6 Oregon Loss 10-15 1640.44 Jan 26th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
59 Whitman Win 15-6 2040.12 Jan 26th Pacific Confrontational Invite 2020
5 Colorado Loss 10-12 1915.46 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2020
28 California-Santa Barbara Loss 6-13 1116.49 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2020
16 UCLA Loss 10-12 1631.71 Feb 15th Presidents Day Invite 2020
39 California-San Diego Win 13-9 2035.92 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2020
36 California-Santa Cruz Win 13-8 2125 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2020
57 Illinois Win 11-8 1818.52 Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2020
160 San Diego State** Win 12-5 1590.19 Ignored Feb 16th Presidents Day Invite 2020
6 Oregon Loss 11-12 1969.05 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2020
16 UCLA Win 10-8 2132.49 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invite 2020
28 California-Santa Barbara Loss 8-10 1453.82 Mar 7th Stanford Invite 2020
15 California Win 10-9 2011.17 Mar 7th Stanford Invite 2020
2 Washington Loss 9-12 1931.09 Mar 7th Stanford Invite 2020
90 Southern California Win 13-6 1870.22 Mar 7th Stanford Invite 2020
43 Stanford Win 12-7 2120.05 Mar 8th Stanford Invite 2020
12 British Columbia Loss 9-11 1685.59 Mar 8th Stanford Invite 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)