#329 Northern Illinois (4-10)

avg: 561.93  •  sd: 103.64  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
229 Missouri Loss 1-9 313.85 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
336 Arkansas State Loss 2-11 -58.97 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
160 Vanderbilt Loss 3-13 524.38 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
283 Tennessee Tech Loss 3-12 138.63 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
336 Arkansas State Loss 14-15 416.03 Mar 17th Shamrock Showdown 2019
269 Ball State Loss 2-15 185.46 Mar 17th Shamrock Showdown 2019
346 Marquette-B Win 8-7 625.18 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
309 Illinois State-B Win 7-6 758.22 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
112 Wisconsin-Whitewater Loss 7-11 839.32 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
198 Valparaiso Loss 8-9 873.06 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
351 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Win 11-7 943.69 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
309 Illinois State-B Loss 4-10 33.22 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
258 Olivet Nazarene Loss 10-11 705.05 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
276 North Park Win 13-5 1369.64 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)