#143 California-San Diego (6-15)

avg: 1160.92  •  sd: 51.6  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
146 Nevada-Reno Win 13-7 1706.83 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
18 Brigham Young** Loss 4-13 1253.38 Ignored Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
79 California-Davis Loss 11-13 1185.79 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
24 Western Washington Loss 8-13 1245.91 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
38 Southern California Loss 8-13 1137.73 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
32 California Loss 9-13 1277.23 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
79 California-Davis Loss 7-13 857.1 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
60 Cornell Loss 5-8 1019.63 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
55 Oregon State Loss 9-13 1099.61 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
148 San Diego State Loss 7-9 867.74 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
5 Washington Loss 7-13 1493.88 Feb 17th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
59 Santa Clara Loss 8-11 1134.16 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
76 Chicago Loss 10-11 1290.31 Feb 18th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
211 Utah State Win 12-7 1428.35 Feb 19th Presidents Day Invitational Tournament 2018
310 Grand Canyon** Win 12-3 1156.25 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
104 Pacific Lutheran Win 9-8 1448.27 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
90 Northern Arizona Loss 7-9 1098.27 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
298 Cal State-Fullerton Win 12-6 1170.47 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
202 Utah Valley Win 10-9 1057.09 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
53 UCLA Loss 6-11 987.72 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
159 Colorado-B Loss 4-7 598.4 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)