#104 Pacific Lutheran (11-2)

avg: 1323.27  •  sd: 63.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
290 Portland State** Win 13-1 1218.12 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
158 Lewis & Clark Win 11-10 1227.13 Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
221 Whitworth Win 15-13 1086.34 Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
226 Western Washington-B Win 13-6 1437.24 Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
271 Central Washington** Win 11-4 1306.87 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
72 Portland Win 15-10 1877.1 Mar 4th 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
310 Grand Canyon** Win 13-2 1156.25 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
298 Cal State-Fullerton Win 13-6 1191.16 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
143 California-San Diego Loss 8-9 1035.92 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
90 Northern Arizona Loss 8-9 1252.6 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
208 Occidental Win 12-5 1520.5 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
333 California-Davis-B** Win 13-1 1030.48 Ignored Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
298 Cal State-Fullerton** Win 13-2 1191.16 Ignored Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)