#191 Grace (8-3)

avg: 981.11  •  sd: 78.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
145 Carthage Win 10-9 1297.13 Mar 19th Meltdown College
183 Minnesota-B Win 9-7 1290.3 Mar 19th Meltdown College
- Illinois Chicago Win 11-5 972.9 Mar 19th Meltdown College
354 Butler-B Win 9-4 552.83 Mar 19th Meltdown College
214 Wheaton (Illinois) Win 8-6 1185.98 Mar 19th Meltdown College
59 Cincinnati Loss 2-13 978.71 Mar 25th Midwest Invite Plan B
301 Purdue-B Win 11-4 1044.41 Mar 25th Midwest Invite Plan B
164 Butler Loss 8-10 838.21 Mar 25th Midwest Invite Plan B
354 Butler-B** Win 13-4 552.83 Ignored Mar 25th Midwest Invite Plan B
215 North Park Win 12-11 1006.54 Mar 26th Midwest Invite Plan B
234 Xavier Loss 9-10 648.54 Mar 26th Midwest Invite Plan B
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)