#126 Chico State (8-6)

avg: 1122.43  •  sd: 111.87  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
181 Colorado-B Loss 5-8 463.22 Feb 1st 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
159 California-Irvine Win 11-8 1357.15 Feb 1st 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
294 Southern California-B** Win 11-1 989.77 Ignored Feb 1st 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
148 Sonoma State Loss 7-9 728.47 Feb 1st 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
86 Arizona State-B-B Loss 6-12 717.76 Feb 2nd 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
214 California-San Diego-B Win 9-6 1198.91 Feb 2nd 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
185 Cal State-Long Beach Loss 6-7 775.75 Feb 2nd 2020 Mens Presidents Day Qualifier
89 Carleton College-GoP Loss 3-10 678.33 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
61 Washington University Win 10-8 1687.06 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
284 San Jose State** Win 13-3 1031.9 Ignored Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
302 Santa Clara-B** Win 13-1 916.06 Ignored Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
75 Nevada-Reno Win 9-1 1960.69 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
54 California-Davis Win 6-5 1603.06 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
27 Western Washington Loss 3-8 1119.07 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)