#374 St Mary's (Maryland) (1-10)

avg: -893.28  •  sd: 95.51  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
340 American-B** Loss 4-15 -597.78 Ignored Feb 15th Crouching Tiger Hidden Panda 2020
365 Pennsylvania-B Loss 5-14 -987.82 Feb 15th Crouching Tiger Hidden Panda 2020
363 Shenandoah Loss 2-9 -955.78 Feb 15th Crouching Tiger Hidden Panda 2020
370 Towson -B Loss 10-12 -945.58 Feb 16th Crouching Tiger Hidden Panda 2020
265 Maryland-B** Loss 2-15 -73.91 Ignored Feb 16th Crouching Tiger Hidden Panda 2020
340 American-B** Loss 3-13 -597.78 Ignored Feb 29th Lorton Hears a Huck
364 Maryland-Baltimore County-B Loss 6-12 -959.34 Feb 29th Lorton Hears a Huck
372 Virginia Commonwealth University-B Win 10-9 -665.59 Feb 29th Lorton Hears a Huck
352 George Mason -B Loss 4-7 -615.24 Feb 29th Lorton Hears a Huck
372 Virginia Commonwealth University-B Loss 6-9 -1209.15 Mar 1st Lorton Hears a Huck
364 Maryland-Baltimore County-B Loss 6-9 -798.59 Mar 1st Lorton Hears a Huck
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)