#304 Mississippi State-B (4-15)

avg: 432.02  •  sd: 75.51  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
251 Alabama-B Loss 5-12 132.69 Jan 21st Tupelo Tuneup
347 Mississippi College Win 13-3 686.61 Jan 21st Tupelo Tuneup
87 Tennessee-Chattanooga** Loss 1-13 836.6 Ignored Jan 21st Tupelo Tuneup
284 Memphis Loss 5-13 -42.4 Jan 22nd Tupelo Tuneup
234 Xavier Loss 5-8 319.94 Jan 22nd Tupelo Tuneup
251 Alabama-B Loss 8-9 607.69 Feb 18th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
209 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 6-10 403.92 Feb 18th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
347 Mississippi College Win 11-5 686.61 Feb 18th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
269 Harding Loss 7-11 182.63 Feb 18th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
251 Alabama-B Loss 6-13 132.69 Feb 19th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
209 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 4-13 300.08 Feb 19th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
269 Harding Loss 3-11 49.53 Feb 19th ‘Ole Muddy Classic
43 Alabama-Huntsville** Loss 4-13 1103.13 Ignored Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
289 Miami (Florida) Loss 4-7 39.19 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
186 Texas State Loss 9-11 748.64 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
102 Kennesaw State Loss 8-13 862.28 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
289 Miami (Florida) Win 9-8 660.34 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
218 Tulane-B Loss 6-9 449.16 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
331 Texas Tech Win 13-7 816.78 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)