#32 Oregon State (16-12)

avg: 1805.73  •  sd: 48.2  •  top 16/20: 0.7%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
74 Lewis & Clark Win 15-10 1944.54 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
241 Humboldt State** Win 15-2 1357.23 Ignored Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
- Oregon-B** Win 15-0 1637.32 Ignored Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
74 Lewis & Clark Win 15-1 2090.93 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
253 Oregon State-B** Win 15-1 1317.62 Ignored Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
137 Portland State Win 15-1 1824.16 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
6 Colorado Loss 11-12 2072.57 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
58 California-San Diego Loss 10-12 1343.29 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
57 Stanford Win 10-8 1844.91 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
9 Oregon Loss 8-11 1771.53 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
18 California Win 11-10 2086.57 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
73 California-Santa Barbara Win 14-9 1965.51 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
7 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 8-12 1734.2 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
15 UCLA Loss 8-12 1587.14 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
42 Grand Canyon Loss 8-9 1580.28 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
7 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 8-13 1679.19 Mar 4th Stanford Invite Mens
18 California Loss 9-10 1836.57 Mar 4th Stanford Invite Mens
73 California-Santa Barbara Win 12-7 2012.15 Mar 4th Stanford Invite Mens
16 British Columbia Win 11-10 2117.55 Mar 5th Stanford Invite Mens
10 California-Santa Cruz Loss 7-10 1700.07 Mar 5th Stanford Invite Mens
58 California-San Diego Win 13-10 1909.55 Mar 5th Stanford Invite Mens
44 Victoria Win 12-11 1821.72 Mar 5th Stanford Invite Mens
232 Chico State** Win 15-5 1382.35 Ignored Apr 1st Northwest Challenge Mens
44 Victoria Loss 10-11 1571.72 Apr 1st Northwest Challenge Mens
81 Whitman Win 10-7 1853.78 Apr 1st Northwest Challenge Mens
16 British Columbia Loss 9-15 1477.06 Apr 2nd Northwest Challenge Mens
17 Washington Loss 9-14 1516.27 Apr 2nd Northwest Challenge Mens
44 Victoria Win 13-8 2192.88 Apr 2nd Northwest Challenge Mens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)