#146 North Carolina-Asheville (9-5)

avg: 1188.17  •  sd: 48.45  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
182 Messiah Win 11-10 1167.84 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
35 Middlebury Loss 10-13 1398.35 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
310 Campbell Win 13-9 1046.75 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
183 Oberlin Win 11-9 1291.16 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
251 Samford Win 13-11 1080.16 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
292 Navy Win 11-4 1302.9 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
107 Franciscan Loss 8-13 829.36 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2019
25 South Carolina Loss 5-13 1186.69 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
136 South Florida Loss 9-12 891.67 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
257 Charleston Win 13-7 1387.87 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
256 Georgia-B Win 13-6 1431.15 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
259 Florida Atlantic Win 14-10 1228.75 Mar 24th College Southerns XVIII
131 Chicago Loss 11-13 1037.65 Mar 24th College Southerns XVIII
165 Georgia Southern Win 12-10 1330.03 Mar 24th College Southerns XVIII
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)