#150 Kennesaw State (5-2)

avg: 960.44  •  sd: 76.54  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
39 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 8-11 1100.68 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
270 Miami (Florida)** Win 13-4 853.17 Ignored Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
284 Mississippi State-B Win 13-8 625.56 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
190 Texas State Win 10-9 850.57 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
102 Central Florida Loss 10-13 826.34 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
225 Jacksonville State Win 10-2 1126.78 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
106 Tennessee-Chattanooga Win 10-9 1253.72 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)