#360 Illinois-Chicago (5-8)

avg: 431.2  •  sd: 92.18  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
203 Wheaton (Illinois) Loss 6-11 425.42 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
97 Grand Valley State** Loss 5-12 763.8 Ignored Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
351 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Win 10-8 739.46 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
427 Wisconsin-Stout Win 11-5 603.93 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2019
177 Winona State** Loss 3-13 462.04 Ignored Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
309 Illinois State-B Loss 6-11 86.52 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
346 Marquette-B Loss 4-8 -64.63 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
370 Kentucky-B Loss 5-8 -82.67 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
- Iowa State-B Win 9-8 702.85 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
369 Notre Dame-B Loss 6-8 81.36 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
128 Saint Louis** Loss 2-13 672.58 Ignored Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
411 Eastern Illinois Win 11-2 759.97 Mar 31st Black Penguins Classic 2019
386 Southern Indiana Win 11-5 887.49 Mar 31st Black Penguins Classic 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)