#355 Colorado Mesa University (2-12)

avg: 354.28  •  sd: 97.63  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
35 Air Force** Loss 1-13 1039.57 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
341 Air Force Academy-B Loss 9-10 281.53 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
128 Colorado School of Mines** Loss 3-13 603.86 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
159 Colorado-B** Loss 2-12 494.56 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
341 Air Force Academy-B Win 7-4 902.69 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
85 Colorado College Loss 5-11 799.36 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
128 Colorado School of Mines Loss 6-10 707.7 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
146 Nevada-Reno** Loss 3-13 549.3 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
208 Occidental Loss 4-13 320.5 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
148 San Diego State** Loss 3-13 547.07 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
329 California-Irvine Loss 6-7 339.87 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
310 Grand Canyon Loss 3-13 -43.75 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
366 Arizona-B Loss 4-13 -283.98 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
332 California-San Diego-B Win 7-6 567.18 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)