#134 Carnegie Mellon (4-12)

avg: 1236.31  •  sd: 63.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
52 Appalachian State Loss 6-14 1034.05 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
69 Maryland Loss 8-12 1098.8 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
27 South Carolina Loss 8-15 1283.37 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
13 Tufts** Loss 6-15 1468.22 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
90 Chicago Loss 9-11 1184.57 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
107 Tennessee Win 10-7 1731.38 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
36 Penn State Loss 5-11 1177.62 Mar 4th Fish Bowl
25 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 7-9 1604.92 Mar 4th Fish Bowl
97 Delaware Loss 9-10 1294 Mar 5th Fish Bowl
147 Connecticut Win 10-9 1287.48 Mar 5th Fish Bowl
56 James Madison Loss 5-12 999.64 Mar 5th Fish Bowl
50 Case Western Reserve Loss 5-12 1040.01 Mar 25th Carousel City Classic
71 Cornell Loss 6-13 903.6 Mar 25th Carousel City Classic
153 Columbia Win 12-7 1661.13 Mar 25th Carousel City Classic
177 Rochester Loss 9-10 915.19 Mar 26th Carousel City Classic
176 Syracuse Win 10-7 1437.45 Mar 26th Carousel City Classic
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)