#51 Virginia (8-10)

avg: 1635.46  •  sd: 73.8  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
107 Tennessee Win 13-8 1837.88 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
49 Notre Dame Win 12-11 1768.26 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
30 Ohio State Loss 11-12 1710.97 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
41 William & Mary Loss 11-12 1593.88 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
69 Maryland Loss 9-13 1121.39 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
24 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 8-12 1453.32 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
50 Case Western Reserve Win 13-8 2136.17 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2023
71 Cornell Win 12-7 2024.11 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2023
150 George Washington Win 13-7 1705.78 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2023
26 Georgia Tech Win 12-10 2106.46 Feb 25th Easterns Qualifier 2023
56 James Madison Win 13-12 1724.64 Feb 26th Easterns Qualifier 2023
24 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 13-15 1680.3 Feb 26th Easterns Qualifier 2023
2 Brigham Young Loss 6-13 1718.3 Mar 18th Centex 2023
79 Texas A&M Loss 8-11 1108.08 Mar 18th Centex 2023
28 Oklahoma Christian Loss 5-8 1389.89 Mar 18th Centex 2023
60 Middlebury Loss 10-11 1453.03 Mar 19th Centex 2023
47 Colorado State Loss 8-14 1111.19 Mar 19th Centex 2023
86 Dartmouth Win 9-5 1966.03 Mar 19th Centex 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)