#86 Duke (9-6)

avg: 1398.98  •  sd: 92  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
193 Liberty Win 13-4 1566.5 Feb 3rd Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
115 Villanova Loss 9-12 931.31 Feb 3rd Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
250 Maryland-Baltimore County** Win 10-4 1368.7 Ignored Feb 3rd Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
194 George Washington Loss 7-12 443.91 Feb 3rd Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
234 Haverford Win 12-9 1152.87 Feb 4th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
161 Boston University Win 9-7 1367.13 Feb 4th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
126 Elon Loss 12-13 1087.12 Feb 4th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2018
12 North Carolina State Loss 8-15 1354.05 Feb 22nd Atlantic Coast Showcase ACS NCSU vs Duke
113 Lehigh Win 13-5 1884.08 Mar 24th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
270 American** Win 13-5 1307.3 Ignored Mar 24th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
151 George Mason Win 13-8 1613 Mar 24th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
83 Middlebury Win 13-10 1734.75 Mar 24th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
61 James Madison Loss 11-12 1347.52 Mar 25th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
48 Dartmouth Win 12-10 1803.55 Mar 25th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
22 Tufts Loss 9-14 1276.31 Mar 25th Atlantic Coast Open 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)