#181 West Virginia (10-5)

avg: 1014.57  •  sd: 103.79  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
127 Elon Loss 5-13 663.12 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend1 2023
276 Georgia Tech-B Win 10-8 855.1 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend1 2023
308 Virginia-B Win 13-9 820.93 Feb 18th Commonwealth Cup Weekend1 2023
200 North Carolina-B Loss 7-9 660.43 Feb 19th Commonwealth Cup Weekend1 2023
276 Georgia Tech-B Win 13-1 1192.43 Feb 19th Commonwealth Cup Weekend1 2023
319 Akron** Win 13-2 915.2 Ignored Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills IX
139 Dayton Loss 9-10 1073.09 Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills IX
272 Ohio Win 9-4 1219.98 Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills IX
364 SUNY-Buffalo-B** Win 13-1 165.91 Ignored Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills IX
272 Ohio Win 15-5 1219.98 Mar 5th Huckin in the Hills IX
192 Wright State Loss 9-15 461.09 Mar 5th Huckin in the Hills IX
352 Siena** Win 13-1 623.97 Ignored Mar 25th Garden State1
165 Penn State-B Win 11-5 1698.45 Mar 26th Garden State1
175 Rowan Loss 7-10 658.49 Mar 26th Garden State1
185 West Chester Win 11-7 1471.54 Mar 26th Garden State1
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)