#273 Wake Forest (6-9)

avg: 701.68  •  sd: 98.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
223 High Point Win 7-3 1463.1 Feb 17th Chucktown Throwdown XV
193 Liberty Loss 4-9 366.5 Feb 17th Chucktown Throwdown XV
116 Appalachian State Loss 8-11 908.85 Feb 17th Chucktown Throwdown XV
252 Western Carolina Win 8-3 1362.3 Feb 17th Chucktown Throwdown XV
282 Wingate Loss 6-10 166.8 Feb 17th Chucktown Throwdown XV
347 Radford Win 13-0 978.28 Feb 18th Chucktown Throwdown XV
249 North Greenville Loss 11-14 456.03 Feb 18th Chucktown Throwdown XV
223 High Point Loss 10-11 738.1 Feb 18th Chucktown Throwdown XV
76 Chicago** Loss 2-13 815.31 Ignored Mar 17th College Southerns 2018
207 Florida-B Loss 6-13 320.75 Mar 17th College Southerns 2018
224 Georgia Southern Win 8-6 1161.73 Mar 17th College Southerns 2018
340 Stetson Win 13-9 829.2 Mar 17th College Southerns 2018
150 North Carolina-Asheville Loss 6-13 531.08 Mar 18th College Southerns 2018
248 North Georgia Loss 7-11 307.43 Mar 18th College Southerns 2018
340 Stetson Win 11-9 659.84 Mar 18th College Southerns 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)