#91 Penn State (7-15)

avg: 1373.9  •  sd: 55.47  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
12 North Carolina State Loss 6-13 1318.86 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
37 Central Florida Loss 9-11 1385.55 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
69 Carleton College-GoP Win 13-6 2049.46 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
14 Florida Loss 8-13 1390.66 Jan 20th Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
1 North Carolina Loss 6-13 1745.34 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
16 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 7-13 1326.98 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff 2018 NC Ultimate
30 Auburn Loss 4-11 1109.26 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Open
64 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 9-11 1213.3 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Open
16 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 8-10 1621.84 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Open
133 Case Western Reserve Win 10-8 1438.43 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Open
151 George Mason Loss 8-11 751.23 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Open
169 Johns Hopkins Win 13-8 1556.84 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
119 Bates Win 13-9 1683.2 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
134 Princeton Win 13-9 1593.46 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
34 William & Mary Loss 9-12 1302.83 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
61 James Madison Loss 11-14 1159.18 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
54 Mary Washington Loss 12-13 1399.23 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
78 Georgetown Loss 9-11 1165.86 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
49 Marquette Loss 7-14 965.47 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
162 Saint Louis Win 16-14 1288.04 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
81 Florida State Win 14-13 1533.72 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
11 Emory Loss 7-12 1400.16 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)