#69 Middlebury (12-5)

avg: 1360.12  •  sd: 70.72  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
241 Air Force** Win 13-3 1141.15 Ignored Mar 4th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
132 Messiah Win 13-7 1597.72 Mar 4th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
75 Richmond Loss 9-11 1062.8 Mar 4th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
96 Whitman Win 13-5 1809.47 Mar 4th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
181 Berry Win 13-11 1052.77 Mar 5th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
144 Franciscan Win 12-10 1219.12 Mar 5th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
170 Butler Win 13-4 1477.06 Mar 5th FCS D III Tune Up 2023
12 Carleton College Loss 6-13 1263.49 Mar 18th Centex 2023
94 Tulane Win 13-8 1715 Mar 18th Centex 2023
62 Northwestern Loss 9-13 969.12 Mar 18th Centex 2023
37 Florida Loss 10-13 1213.4 Mar 18th Centex 2023
112 Illinois Win 15-8 1689.15 Mar 19th Centex 2023
50 Virginia Win 11-10 1568.6 Mar 19th Centex 2023
44 Colorado College Loss 10-11 1364.81 Mar 19th Centex 2023
155 Cedarville Win 10-9 1063.19 Mar 25th Needle in a Ho Stack2
- High Point** Win 15-6 844.81 Ignored Mar 25th Needle in a Ho Stack2
268 North Carolina State-B** Win 15-1 1032.52 Ignored Mar 25th Needle in a Ho Stack2
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)