#112 Illinois (4-10)

avg: 1124.34  •  sd: 77.41  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
21 Georgia** Loss 5-13 1136.32 Ignored Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
29 Wisconsin Loss 6-13 1066.66 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
3 Brigham Young** Loss 2-13 1517.51 Ignored Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
99 Temple Loss 8-9 1072.41 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
127 Connecticut Win 13-6 1646.34 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
106 Florida State Loss 7-8 1035.45 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
80 Texas A&M Loss 12-13 1159.65 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
204 South Florida Win 9-2 1323.38 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
52 Colorado State Loss 6-13 836.47 Mar 18th Centex 2023
109 Dartmouth Loss 8-12 700.52 Mar 18th Centex 2023
94 Tulane Loss 8-9 1093.84 Mar 18th Centex 2023
69 Middlebury Loss 8-15 795.31 Mar 19th Centex 2023
109 Dartmouth Win 12-11 1266.67 Mar 19th Centex 2023
94 Tulane Win 15-10 1672.44 Mar 19th Centex 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)