#38 Purdue (7-6)

avg: 1773.1  •  sd: 93.63  •  top 16/20: 3.9%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
50 Case Western Reserve Loss 13-15 1425.84 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
24 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 8-12 1453.32 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
1 North Carolina** Loss 6-15 1792.65 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
62 Harvard Win 14-6 2168.9 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
36 Penn State Loss 7-8 1652.62 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
49 Notre Dame Loss 6-12 1063.95 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
85 Alabama Win 7-5 1775.14 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
35 Missouri Win 6-5 1911.83 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
65 Indiana Win 10-5 2139.74 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
48 Iowa State Win 11-2 2246.34 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
48 Iowa State Win 11-10 1771.34 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
64 St. Olaf Win 12-8 2009.15 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
22 Washington University Loss 7-12 1384.81 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)