#192 Loyola Marymount (5-4)

avg: 699.68  •  sd: 102.88  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
246 California-B Win 10-9 541.87 Feb 4th Stanford Open
185 Nevada-Reno Win 9-8 878.13 Feb 4th Stanford Open
241 Humboldt State Win 10-6 937.71 Feb 4th Stanford Open
144 Occidental Loss 7-12 451.63 Feb 5th Stanford Open
122 Washington-B Loss 4-10 459.23 Feb 5th Stanford Open
185 Nevada-Reno Win 13-5 1353.13 Feb 5th Stanford Open
123 California-Irvine Loss 10-13 728.34 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
180 San Diego State Loss 7-12 268.19 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
218 Cal State-Long Beach Win 11-9 802.16 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)