#45 Illinois State (15-10)

avg: 1586.15  •  sd: 72.72  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
259 Northern Illinois Win 13-6 1352.4 Jan 20th T Town Throwdown XIV Open
63 Tulane Loss 8-11 1098.07 Jan 20th T Town Throwdown XIV Open
154 Mississippi Win 13-12 1239.56 Jan 20th T Town Throwdown XIV Open
396 Kentucky-B** Win 13-0 709.63 Ignored Jan 20th T Town Throwdown XIV Open
88 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 13-15 1174.13 Jan 21st T Town Throwdown XIV Open
153 Xavier Win 15-6 1715.49 Jan 21st T Town Throwdown XIV Open
120 Mississippi State Win 15-7 1861.29 Jan 21st T Town Throwdown XIV Open
29 Texas Win 12-11 1836.1 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
42 Connecticut Loss 9-13 1176.99 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
2 Carleton College Loss 9-13 1809.63 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
6 Brown Loss 10-12 1808.59 Feb 16th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
41 Northeastern Loss 10-12 1365.24 Feb 17th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
37 Central Florida Loss 7-13 1077.22 Feb 17th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
81 Florida State Loss 13-15 1194.54 Feb 18th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
93 Cincinnati Win 15-9 1878.9 Feb 18th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
111 Arizona State Loss 11-12 1164.21 Feb 18th Warm Up A Florida Affair 2018
69 Carleton College-GoP Win 15-10 1903.06 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
164 St John's Win 15-10 1527.01 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
51 Ohio State Win 15-8 2102.5 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2018
99 Missouri S&T Loss 11-12 1212.88 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
142 North Park Win 15-10 1617.36 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
171 Truman State Win 15-7 1638.6 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2018
133 Case Western Reserve Win 15-7 1775.77 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
74 Washington University Win 14-9 1892.36 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
51 Ohio State Win 15-10 1991.3 Mar 31st Huck Finn 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)