#45 Western Washington (5-9)

avg: 1489.25  •  sd: 70.26  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
7 Oregon Loss 9-11 1718.87 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
26 California Loss 9-12 1347.75 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
62 Northwestern Win 15-10 1841.29 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
66 Stanford Loss 8-9 1247.5 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
124 Arizona State Win 15-6 1664.85 Jan 29th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
43 Grand Canyon Loss 9-12 1166.54 Jan 29th Santa Barbara Invitational 2023
14 UCLA Loss 6-12 1251.51 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
30 Utah State Loss 8-11 1285.09 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
26 California Loss 4-10 1093.11 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
6 Colorado Loss 11-15 1611.23 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
38 Emory Loss 7-9 1256.48 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
20 Washington Win 11-10 1867.05 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
64 California-San Diego Win 11-9 1628.8 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
66 Stanford Win 13-9 1791.06 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)